Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia: Evidence from Modeling Scenarios
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The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious model intercomparison effort that compiled thousands of model-scenario combinations to consider low carbon development pathways.
This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider decarbonization pathways for developing Asia. Overall, a comparison of the major models finds strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector required to achieve Paris Agreement goals. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal—a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia—and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation efforts are efficient, as assumed in the models.
Contents
- Introduction
- Context
- Objectives
- Methods
- Emissions Pathways
- Energy Mix
- Investment Needs
- Energy Intensity
- Policy Costs
- Conclusion
- Appendix: Description of Models
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